Emerging countries bump up aircraft demand

AIRBUS    AIRPLANE MANUFACTURING    AIRCRAFT DEMAND

Global - 25,000 new passenger and freighter aircraft valued at US$3.1 trillion could be delivered between this year and 2028, revealed a new Airbus Global Market Forecast.

Airbus cited emerging economies, evolving airline networks, expansion of low cost carriers, increasing number of mega-cities, traffic growth and the replacement of older aircraft as factors driving demand for these new aircrafts.

The forecast anticipates that over the next 20 years, passenger traffic RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometres) will remain resilient to the cyclical effects of the sector and increase by 4.7% annually or double in the next 15 years.

This will require a demand for approximately 24,100 new passenger aircraft worth US$2.9 trillion in addition to replacing approximately 10,000 older passenger aircraft.

Airbus foresees demand for Very Large Aircraft (VLA) such as the A380, at above 1,700. Valued at US$571 billion, this represents 19% by value of passenger and freighter aircraft deliveries, or 7% of aircraft units.

In the twin-aisle aircraft segment such as the A340, approximately 6,250 new passenger and freighter aircraft will be delivered by 2028. Valued at some US$1.3 billion, this represents 42% by value, 25% by units.

Almost 17,000 single-aisle aircraft worth US$1.2 billion will also be built. This represents 39% by value or 68% by units, said Airbus.

In addition, airfreight tonne kilometres (FTK) is expected to increase by 5.2% annually, creating a demand for 3,440 freighters. More than 850 of these will are new aircraft valued at US$210 billion.

"Air transportation is a growth industry and an essential ingredient in the world economy...Technology and innovation are key drivers for an eco-efficient aviation sector and Airbus is at the forefront of both," said John Leahy, chief operating officer of Airbus. 

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