Aviation industry to pick up by 2011: Airbus

Global - Airbus chief John Leahy predicts the global aviation industry to return to strong growth in 2011, going in the face of gloomier predictions by other carriers and airline associations.

Leahy was quoted in the Australian as saying that he is optimistic the airline industry will return to good financial health by 2011. He was quoting an analysis done by Airbus.

The analysis is more optimistic than forecasts from the International Air Transport Authority (IATA) and the Association of Asia Pacific Airlines (AAPA).

"The air cargo business remains severely depressed as a result of the sharp slowdown in international trade. Whilst the crisis confronting the industry remains acute, traffic levels do seem to be stabilising, even though there is, as yet, no sign of any uptick in demand that might signal the beginnings of a recovery process," said AAPA director general Andrew Herdman.

AAPA said international cargo load factor fell by five percentage points to 63.2% in March, while international passenger traffic, in RPK (revenue passenger kilometres) terms, fell by 12.9% from the previous year.

Hong Kong Air Cargo Terminals general manager of marketing and customer service Lilian Chan was also cautious when speaking of the outlook for the industry. Reporting April tonnage figures slipping 22.5% over 2008, Chan said: "Further to the already gloomy global economy, the current Influenza A (H1N1) poses another challenge to the overall market confidence, which may further delay the recovery of the air cargo industry."

Leahy, on the other hand, predicted Airbus's best case was that world air traffic would be down by 2% this year and return to growth next year. In a worst-case scenario involving a deeper downturn, traffic growth would register a minus 4% growth, with no growth next year and a rise in 2011.

The airplane maker earlier this month said it will scale back its A380 production as airlines deferred delivery, producing only 14 aircraft in 2009 versus a planned 18, and more than 20 in 2010 from 45 announced previously.